As I said, how true it is who knows, he has been wrong before and he is a major stockholder in several related dealerships. He made the following predictions over the years. A two door Dodge Charger, the Scion tc to be modified into the new celica for 2017, and a Chrysler 300 convertible. I hated the CVT for freeway use and still do, but it is smooth in city and local 2 lane driving where I drive the most. It is slowly winning me over. I hope they keep it for those who want it, but I'd like to have a 6 speed auto. as an option. The only reason there is a CVT is to meet Café Averages, but I don't think it would be wise to leave current owners out on a limb. Nissan put theirs out before it was perfected and that was a disaster. Maybe they are seeing buyer resistance from all of Nissan's bad press. I don't know
Who knows indeed... I don't think it's just about CAFE. About 70% of Corollas are sold elsewhere than in US. It's about gas prices, gas availability and, above all, personal budget for it.
Turbo's get rave reviews and EPA numbers but it's often different in real life, while CVT's seem less and less offensive to picky reviewers.
On other markets, BMW engines in Corolla is not a novelty but rather a niche variant thing, just as Toyota's engine in BMW (Mini). It makes sense from a R&D cost perspective.
Corolla is a basic transportation econobox device. They might want a "sportier" variant for marketing but I don't see them going all "performance" without loosing name equity in establishing a valid alternative (Yaris iA isn't, in the value department).
On the other hand, the current cvt will 10 be years old when the new Corolla comes to market. So there might be a change in one way or the other.
But again, who knows... so many "experts" were saying that the new TNGA Camry would ditch the V6 and go all CVT. Didn't happen !